[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel Prices Fell Significantly on November 12, While Spot Premiums Continued to Rise

SMM Nickel November 12 News:

Macro and Market News:

(1) Due to market concerns about the deterioration of the US labour market, the US dollar index continued to decline and plunged significantly before the US trading session, but recovered some losses during the US session, ultimately closing down 0.12% at 99.48.

(2) On November 11, the People's Bank of China released the China Monetary Policy Execution Report for the third quarter of 2025. It will implement an appropriately accommodative monetary policy. It will comprehensively use various tools to maintain relatively loose social financing conditions, while continuing to improve the monetary policy framework and strengthening the execution and transmission of monetary policy. It will further improve the interest rate regulation framework, strengthen the guiding role of the central bank's policy rates, improve the market-based interest rate formation and transmission mechanism, leverage the role of the market interest rate pricing self-discipline mechanism, strengthen the execution and supervision of interest rate policy, reduce bank liability costs, and promote a decline in overall social financing costs. It will leverage the dual functions of monetary policy tools in terms of aggregate and structure, increasing support for key areas such as technological innovation, boosting consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade.

Spot Market:

On November 12, the SMM #1 refined nickel price was 118,400-122,500 yuan/mt, with an average price of 120,450 yuan/mt, down 850 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 3,600-3,800 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 3,700 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premiums/discounts quotation range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -100-300 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2512) fluctuated rangebound during the night session. Prices fell below 119,000 yuan in the morning session and continued to weaken. As of the midday close, it was reported at 118,500 yuan/mt, down 0.80%.

Despite positive factors from a macro perspective, such as the restart of the US government, the weak performance of nickel prices themselves made it difficult for them to fully benefit from the overall market optimism. Nickel prices are expected to remain relatively weak in the short term, with a reference price range of 118,000-122,000 yuan/mt.